A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
