Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
